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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Weekly Mortgage Update - Last Week in Review

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

“REALITY IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF STRESS AMONGST THOSE IN TOUCH WITH IT.” Lily Tomlin. The reality of the recession has been stressful for many of us, but various pieces of news this week show things may be starting to turn around.

Friday’s important Jobs Report showed there were 539,000 jobs lost in April versus expectations of a 610,000 loss, representing the smallest job loss since October. Even though the Unemployment Rate moved higher and hit a 26-year high of 8.9%, this is a lagging indicator, and many other data points hint that the worst could be over for the job market, and could lead to lessening stress in this area during the months ahead.

Speaking of stress, last week’s “stress test” results showed the banking system is on the mend, and in better shape than it was a few months back. 10 of the 19 largest banks will need additional capital to cope with potential future challenges, but as a whole the banking system is solvent and regaining health. A crucial point to remember is that almost all of the institutions under scrutiny elected to choose the cash flow method of asset valuation, as opposed to the mark-to-market method. This would not have been possible without the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) allowing for this change last month.

Positive news came from Wal-Mart, saying that their sales for April were better than forecast. And they say, “As goes Wal-Mart, so goes the entire retail sector”, so this may mean health is also coming back to retailers at large.

Bonds attempted to regain some ground in the early part of the week, but the good news from Thursday’s bank stress test, the better than expected Jobs Report on Friday, and the rally in Stocks caused Bonds to fall below key support levels. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week slightly worse than where they began.

Read the entire report here.

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