TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
Once again, our numbers show why we are the number one office in San Francisco. Read the report
here.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending May 17, 2009
NAR Announces Housing Affordability Highest in 18 Years – And Many Offices Report Increased Activity in High End Sales
For months I’ve been sharing that this is one of the best times to purchase a home in decades. This week the National Association of Realtors underscored that fact –stating that nationwide housing affordability jumped 10 percentage points during the first quarter of 2009 to its highest level since the series began 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The HOI showed that 72.5% of all new and existing US homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, up from 62.4% during the previous quarter and up from 53.8% during the first quarter of 2008.
Locally, the story is much more dramatic. In the San Francisco-Peninsula area, 32% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were considered affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $96,800. That’s up 60% from the previous quarter and up an incredible 146% from a year ago, when the index was a paltry 13%, one of the lowest affordability ratios in the United States.
Follow the link below to get the historical charts and details on North Bay, East Bay, Silicon Valley, and Santa Cruz, as well as many other Metros in the US.
http://www.nahb.org/page.aspx/category/sectionID=135Below you’ll find a few more news stories of interest from the week:
Many of you have asked me questions about the potential changes in the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit (http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009051202?OpenDocument). Essentially the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban development announced on May 12th that the Federal Housing Administration would permit its lenders to allow home buyers to use the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit as a down payment. FHA’s approved lenders would be permitted to “monetize” the tax credit through short-term bridge loans. This would allow eligible buyers to access the funds immediately at the closing table. Here is a CNN Money article which explains some of the details:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/18/real_estate/tax_credit_as_downpayment/index.htm?postversion=2009051912
I must caution that the execution of this is quite complicated and it may take some time before it becomes a reality. By late this week, there were already comments coming out of Washington that this may have been released a bit prematurely, and there is no guarantee that it will be successfully implemented. HUD would need to authorize lenders, non-profits and certain agencies to provide a bridge loan which would then be reimbursed at the time of tax refund. These players are not yet identified. Again, an encouraging and useful tool, but the execution and timing of it have yet to be fully outlined. Watch for more to come.
Read the rest of the article here.
FNMA Condo Guideline Update
New guidelines are now available on our
website.
- Janis Stone
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
As noted in President Rick Turley’s
weekly address, our office did an outstanding job so far this month compared to the rest of the companies representing San Francisco real estate. Look at the numbers below and realize that our marking is recovering. If you are a buyer sitting on the fence, don’t miss your window of opportunity. It won’t be long before we will probably see multiple offer situations once again.
View the report
here.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending May 10, 2009
Recent Housing Stats Are Showing Encouraging Signs for Market
This week I thought I’d share some positive stories that continue to permeate not only our local news but on a national level as well.
The National Association of Realtors® said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in March, rose 3.2% as first-time buyers waded into the market to take advantage of favorable prices and mortgage rates.
A report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed construction spending rose 0.3% in March, the first increase in six months.
The pending home sales report added evidence that sales have reached a bottom. “That’s critical because once sales bottom, it’s only a matter of time before you work off excess inventories. That’s the key to stabilization in the financial system and the economy at large. We’re closer to that than people thought just a few months ago.”
– Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., “Sales and Construction Data Lift Hopes for Housing,” by Lucia Mutikani, Reuters, May 4, 2009.
On a national basis, the forces driving real estate right now are increasingly turning positive and encouraging.
- Home sales in major markets around the country have shown dramatic gains in the past month.
- In Florida, statewide sales jumped by 30% in March over year-earlier levels, and were up 33% over the previous month. Even condo sales were up by 25%.
- In California, statewide sales rose 64% in March compared with March 2008. Unsold inventory is now just five months — that’s down from 12 months the previous March.
- Median house prices may be bottoming out. The California Association of Realtors® reports the median price of homes sold was up by 2.2% for the past month.”
– “Real Estate Outlook: Sales Rising in Some Areas,” by Kenneth R. Harney, Realty Times, May 5, 2009.
Also interesting to note:
- The current price level of homes seems to be drawing more buyers into the market, according to Jim Gillespie, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate. “We are seeing a lot of activity across the nation. Of course we’re in the spring market, but we’ve seen more buyers in the market now than at this same time last year.”
- “Home prices are where they should be. Sellers are accepting the current reality and are pricing more realistically,” said Robert Abbott, co-owner and VP of a northern New Jersey brokerage. “More people are not only ‘kicking the tires’ but actually buying right now. We are showing significant activity when it comes to sales. The number of days for a house on the market is going down.”
– “More Homes Get Multiple Offers; Downturn May be Nearing End,” by Julie Schmit, USA Today, May 6, 2009.
- Multiple bids have picked up in recent months in California and other states hit hard by foreclosures and steep price drops, real estate executives say. “If a house is in a good neighborhood, is maintained and is a good value, it’ll get multiple offers. One in 10 homes now draw multiple offers, up from one in 30 last fall.”
– Julie Holt, owner of a title services company in Florida, “Is Now the Time for Some Home Buyers to Make a Deal?,” by Mark Koba, CNBC, April 28, 2009.
And with that news in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
Go to our
website for the local market reports.
- Rick Turley
Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“I WILL ACT NOW. I WILL ACT NOW. I WILL ACT NOW.” Og Mandino. The markets took those words to heart last week, with plenty of timely action ranging from telling economic reports to interesting announcements from the government, related to homebuyers.
On the economic news front, the headlines were mixed. On the disappointing side was a worse than expected Retail Sales Report, which showed that consumers are continuing to tighten their purse strings. Not entirely surprising, but it did mark the eighth decline in the past ten months for Retail Sales. Initial Unemployment Claims were also reported worse than expected - which some said were due to massive Chrysler layoffs - but still was disappointing after there had been some recent signs of improvement in the labor markets.
However, there was positive economic news as well, including improved readings from the manufacturing sector, as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index improved for the third month straight. Consumer Sentiment was also better than the previous reading and the best since September of last year. So although the consumer isn’t out spending money with abandon just yet, this report shows that most folks are indeed starting to feel better about the economic outlook, likely due in part to the values of their investment accounts improving as Stock values move higher.
Read the entire report on our
website.
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
The latest office statistics are now on our
website.
- Janis Stone
Carole Rodoni Seminar at TRI Coldwell Banker
Information on this timely FREE seminar may be found on our
website.
- May 27th, 2009
- 6-8 PM
- RSVP at 415-474-1750 by May 20th
- Topic: The REAL Scoop on the Real Estate Market
- Refreshments
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending May 3, 2009
Stress Test Reveals More Work to Be Done By Banks- While Entry Level Local Real Estate Market Heats Up!
This week the results of the long-awaited Stress Test on US banks were released. What the government hoped to accomplish through this Stress Test was to determine how much capital the banking sector currently has, and what level they deem appropriate to withstand the recession. The result was that 10 of the nation’s 19 largest banks will need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital. The Stress Test revealed that banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan seemed to be better positioned than Citigroup and Bank of America.
At this point, according to Kiplinger, “The stronger banks will actively do what they can to return any money borrowed from the government to get out from under restrictions on dividends and executive compensation. Their ability to sell common stock to the public is far better than their weaker counterparts, who may have to privately sell stock to investors or raise capital with so-called mandatory convertible preferred shares.”
According to industry analysts, it seems that until the banks get back on their feet, credit will continue to be tight. That leaves the Federal Reserve responsible for filling in the gaps with its own programs aimed at jump-starting lending.
On a brighter note, however, the real estate sector of our economy continues to show some positive signs. USA Today reported earlier this week that “More homes for sale are attracting multiple offers as buyers pursue lower-price homes and banks low-ball asking prices to attract competing bids on foreclosures.” It’s exactly what we’ve seen locally, the entry level home buyer market is fueling this recovery. We forecasted this, and now that multiple offers are the norm in the majority of our entry level markets, some frustrated buyers are scratching their heads and wondering what happened to the buyer’s market. We warned that things could turn on a dime, and it seems in many starter home markets, prices are already on the rise.
Read the entire report
here.
Weekly Mortgage Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports.
Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“REALITY IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF STRESS AMONGST THOSE IN TOUCH WITH IT.” Lily Tomlin. The reality of the recession has been stressful for many of us, but various pieces of news this week show things may be starting to turn around.
Friday’s important Jobs Report showed there were 539,000 jobs lost in April versus expectations of a 610,000 loss, representing the smallest job loss since October. Even though the Unemployment Rate moved higher and hit a 26-year high of 8.9%, this is a lagging indicator, and many other data points hint that the worst could be over for the job market, and could lead to lessening stress in this area during the months ahead.
Speaking of stress, last week’s “stress test” results showed the banking system is on the mend, and in better shape than it was a few months back. 10 of the 19 largest banks will need additional capital to cope with potential future challenges, but as a whole the banking system is solvent and regaining health. A crucial point to remember is that almost all of the institutions under scrutiny elected to choose the cash flow method of asset valuation, as opposed to the mark-to-market method. This would not have been possible without the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) allowing for this change last month.
Positive news came from Wal-Mart, saying that their sales for April were better than forecast. And they say, “As goes Wal-Mart, so goes the entire retail sector”, so this may mean health is also coming back to retailers at large.
Bonds attempted to regain some ground in the early part of the week, but the good news from Thursday’s bank stress test, the better than expected Jobs Report on Friday, and the rally in Stocks caused Bonds to fall below key support levels. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week slightly worse than where they began.
Read the entire report
here.
C.A.R. OPPOSES Point-of-Sale Mandate!!
This is another way to hurt real estate sales. Read the recommendation on our
website.
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
The latest office statistics are now on our
website.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending April 26, 2009
Last week I reported on positive indicators in the first-time homebuyer market. New mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances were up 77 percent from the same week in April 2008. Mortgage rates continue to average well below 5 percent – 4.7 percent last week on average for 30-year fixed rate loans and 4.5 percent for 15 year loans. Rates like these are a major factor pushing applications. Nearly 600,000 home buyers have already claimed either the $7,500 tax credit from last year or the $8,000 credit for this year, according to IRS data cited by the National Association of Home Builders.
Statewide, CAR reported improvement in both sales numbers and median price. March existing home sales were up 64% from prior year, and median price had the first month-over-month increase since August of 2007. California’s inventory of unsold homes also fell in March to five months, down from 12.2 months in March 2008, making March ‘09 a three year low for existing inventory.
Locally, I want share what’s going on in the East Bay (Alameda and Contra Costa Counties) which has been one of the markets hardest hit by foreclosures and price declines. We are starting to see some real positive news in this market. Specifically (as displayed in the graph below), when comparing accepted offers to new listings, we are currently at 112% which is a 69% increase year over year and an 86% increase from this time two years ago. The graph tells the story:
Read the entire report
here.
Monthly Market Update
Once we moved the blog over to our website, it seemed redundant to post monthly reports on the blog and on our market page. So to see the latest report go to
www.sfresidence.com/market.htm- Janis Stone
May Newsletter is Now Online!
Our May newsletter is now online and may be seen
here.
- Janis Stone
Weekly Mortgage Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“YOU’RE MOTORING.WHAT’S YOUR PRICE FOR FLIGHT?” 80’s band Night Ranger’s ballad “Sister Christian” perhaps describes the question some spring break travelers are asking travel agents as they reschedule plans to visit Mexico, in light of last week’s sudden swine flu outbreak.
And while the quickly spreading illness has made this Spring’s travel season especially challenging, there are some bright spots on the horizon for the economy.
Last week, the Fed signaled that the recession may be easing, and this news was echoed by the
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who also said that the recession would probably end by the time Summer is over. The ECRI, whose leading indicators have a solid track record of predicting turns in the business cycle, said that enough of its key gauges have turned upward to indicate with certainty that a recovery is coming.
The beleaguered auto industry has been big news of late, and while Chrysler struggled to find “Mr. Right” in Fiat, the price for their flight ended up to be bankruptcy.while on the other hand, it looks like Ford will be all right tonight, as their Stock is up big from just one week ago. What’s more, as you can see in the chart below, Stocks in general had a great April. In fact, the S&P 500 had its best month in nine years, gaining 9.4%, led by the financial sector. This is further evidence that the changes in mark-to-market accounting were a great decision.
In addition, there were several good economic reports to note as Consumer Confidence for April came in at its fourth largest gain in the history of the survey, while Consumer Sentiment also came in better than expected. The improvement in the way consumers are feeling is likely influenced by the improvement in Stock prices.
Read the entire report
here.
Monthly San Francisco Real Estate Market Update Now Online!
See the latest market report on our
website!
- Janis Stone
