Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
They say no news is good news. But perhaps the more important question this week is will the Fed’s news from their latest Federal Open Market Committee Meeting be good news for rates and the economy? Here’s what you need to know.
Last week, the Fed released their Interest Rate and Policy Statement after their latest regularly-scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. While there was speculation ahead of time that the Fed may decide to buy more longer-term Treasuries, which could jumpstart the cycle needed to eventually bring home loan rates down, the Fed did not make any changes to the Fed Funds Rate or their Bond purchase program. The one change from the prior meeting’s statement was that the Fed now does not see deflation as a risk. While this is good news, it also means that there could be a real threat of inflation down the road. And remember, inflation is bad for Bonds and home loan rates, so this could have a big impact on rates in the longer term!
There was good news in the Personal Income Report as personal income rose in June by its biggest gain in over a year. The increase in income led to higher consumer spending and savings in June. Spending rose for the first time in three months, while the savings rate climbed to its highest level since December 1993 as the chart shows…
Read the entire report
here.
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
As summer arrives, we are seeing our market level off. Although this week new listings were not the story, our office continues to put deals in escrow which is why we are the number one office in San Francisco. If something is sold in the City, there is usually a TRI Agent involved, whether it is representing the buyer or the seller. See the report on our website.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending June 14, 2009
There is no report from Rick Turley this
week.
- Janis Stone
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
The real story of our office was the number of listings that had prices reduced. It might indicate that sellers are still having a problem accepting the market decline and agents being afraid to tell them the true worth of their property. Our belated report is now online at our
website.
- Janis Stone
First Republic Publishes California Luxury Home Report for Q1 2009
Read the California Luxury Home Index report from First Republic Bank for the San Francisco Bay Area
here.
- Janis Stone
Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“THE WORLD IS BUT A PERPETUAL SEE-SAW.” Michel de Montaigne. And that sentiment was especially true in the world of Stocks and Bonds last week, as money see-sawed back and forth between the two markets, halting the improvement that Bonds and home loan rates mustered up in the first part of the week.
Bonds and home loan rates began the week looking good - and remembering that inflation is bad news for both Bonds and rates, they were helped along by good news on the inflation front. Inflation at the wholesale or producer level remained tame in May, and at a consumer level, inflation readings came in lower than expected, with a year-over-year reading at its lowest level since 1950. These are good signs that inflation hasn’t become an issue yet. However, inflation will be a concern down the road, due to the massive stimulus being injected into the economy. It is said that rates are like a boat floating atop the sea of inflation…as inflation rises, so will home loan rates. If you or someone you know should be acting on today’s still low home loan rates, please get in touch soon.
Also helping Bonds rally in the early part of last week was the fact that the New York State manufacturing index came in weaker than estimates, indicating that the US economy is still very weak. And since bad economic news often causes money to flow from Stocks into Bonds, this piece of news helped Bonds start the week on an improving trend.
However, Bonds and home loan rates reversed course midweek and worsened, as money see-sawed back over to Stocks. They were also pressured to worsen by the enormous amount of Bond supply hitting the markets - as too much supply of anything will naturally cause the price to move lower…and in this case, has caused home loan rates to move higher. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds have worsened when additional supply has been announced, causing home loan rates to climb.
Read the entire report
here.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending June 7, 2009
This week Realogy (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage’s parent company) President Richard Smith met with legislators regarding the need for policy initiatives concerning the real estate industry and the economy as a whole. Specifically, the Business Roundtable (an association of chief executive officers of leading U.S. corporations)— of which Richard is the chair—issued a set of recommendations for the White House and Congress that are aimed at jump starting the housing market in order to stimulate a broader economic recovery.
The Business Roundtable’s recommendations are as follows:
- Keep mortgage interest rates at historically low levels (below 5 percent) for at least one year;
- Expand the current First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit incentive from the lesser of 10 percent of the purchase price of the home or $8,000 to a higher limit of either 10 percent or $15,000 for all homebuyers, remove the income restrictions and include all primary residence purchases for one full year;
- Conduct a thorough review of current foreclosure mitigation and loan-modification programs in light of rising loan-modification re-default rates;
- Make permanent the current temporary conforming loan limits; and
- Continue to review and strengthen government efforts already underway to review and refine mortgage lending practices.
We believe targeted, demand-side solutions—such as the ones Business Roundtable is recommending—will provide a critical next step for a housing recovery that will help create jobs and boost the economy as a whole. To obtain a copy of the Business Roundtable press release and its Housing Working Group’s detailed recommendations, click here. To read an article that appeared in today’s online edition of The Wall Street Journal containing an interview about the Business Roundtable’s recommendations and why they are crucial to jumpstarting the housing market, click here. We will communicate with you as any legislative opportunities occur for you to contact members of Congress and voice your support—but for now, just know that we appreciate your support and are proud to be part of this initiative.
In other news this week, RealtyTrac released its foreclosure findings with positive news that foreclosure filings dipped 6% in May compared with April. But the news wasn’t all positive as the number is still 18% above this time last year. In California, the picture continues to be a bit more bleak. We are ranked No. 2 out of 50 states in foreclosure filings with 92,249 total filings or one in every 144 households. While the last two months showed a decline with a 4.5% drop from April 2009 to May 2009, the year-over-year number is still a 22.8% increase. For a complete look at the USA Today story that ran on the figures, click here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-06-10-may-home-foreclosures_N.htm#chart.
While none of us are happy to hear about more homes in the foreclosure process, our local markets are telling us that there is sufficient demand for bank-owned properties – most are still receiving multiple offers when they hit the market.
Read the rest of the article here.
Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“DON’T TOUCH THAT DIAL.” That familiar broadcasting statement certainly applied to the markets last week, as the volatility continued and the markets changed direction quickly.
Take a look at the chart below (chart may be seen on our blog), which shows how home loan rates have climbed dramatically over the last several weeks. In fact, home loan rates are at their highest levels since the Federal Reserve announced their Mortgage Backed Security purchase plan at the end of 2008. While the chart below is just a rough indicator of present rates that require points and fees to be paid, it’s clear to see the dramatic climb rates have taken in recent days.
Read the entire report on our
website.
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
Day after day, the market seems to be picking up steam. Let’s hope our legislators don’t do something to derail the recovery. Real estate is sensitive to mortgage rates which are beginning to creep up. Also lending guidelines are becoming somewhat unreasonable. After some of the shenanigans that went on which caused the last bust, it makes sense that the government would want to keep an eye on corruption. But let’s not go crazy and deny loans to people who deserve them. After all, aren’t they supposed to stand up for the little guy? With that said, things are looking rosy for a good summer market. Read the report
here.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending May 31, 2009
Showing Activity In the Entry Level and Mid-Level Markets Continues to Rise
Now that school is almost out, we’re finding many families are starting to look at homes in anticipation of getting settled prior to next school year. Showing activity in many markets has increased considerably.
Sellers are getting their homes on the market and, in general, seem to be quite receptive to staging and pricing strategies. The homes in the entry-level market are moving well if they are in good condition, and if fairly and competitively priced. We are seeing multiple offer situations in most of our first time home buyer markets. The price point for this activity is of course different by county, and by specific MLS zones, but this week as I visited several Santa Clara County and Marin County offices – I was told about numerous multiple offer situations garnering 10 to 20 offers in the $400,000 to $500,000 range. One property listed at $399,000 (in a mid-$400’s neighborhood, I believe) received over 50 offers.
Though we have seen sporadic new activity in the upper end market, it is still relatively slow for properties over $2M. The month’s supply of inventory for high end properties is more than triple that of homes listed under $800,000. Having said that, we also need to make note of the current momentum we’re starting to see in our offices in the high end. Just looking at one particular day this week, among many other sales, we closed escrow on homes ranging from $1.7M to $2.7M in Palo Alto, Carmel, and Mill Valley, and a home in Los Altos Hills just shy of $3M.
This week LORE Magazine and the Wall Street Journal released their 2008 Top 400 Realtor list. You may view it online at
http://online.wsj.com/ad/top400-articlecontinued.html. I’m very proud that we have an impressive number of SF Bay Area Coldwell Banker sales associates who were recognized within this coveted ranking, and for that—along with all of their hard work and dedication, we salute them.
Read the rest of the article
here.
Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“IT’S A RECESSION WHEN YOUR NEIGHBOR LOSES HIS JOB; IT’S A DEPRESSION WHEN YOU LOSE YOURS.” Harry S. Truman. The big headlines of the week had everything to do with job losses…and some surprising twists within the monthly Jobs Report that arrived on Friday, and caused home loan rates to worsen yet once again. Despite their efforts to improve early in the week, Bonds and rates ended the week .375% to .5% worse than where they began.
Friday’s Jobs Report showed that 345,000 jobs were lost in May, far better than expectations for 520,000 jobs lost. And adding to the positive tone were revisions to the two prior months, showing 82,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported. So all in all, about 260,000 fewer jobs lost than had been forecast. But let’s take a closer look.
Read the entire report on our
website.
Fast Facts from CAR and Freddie Mac - April 2009
New statistics for California real estate activity for April are now online at our website. Read the report
here.
- Janis Stone
June 2009 Monthly Market Update for May Real Estate Sales
Our June report for May 2009 sales is now online
here.
- Janis Stone
TRI Coldwell Banker San Francisco real estate statistics - last week in review
Once again, numbers show The market is heating up. Buyers beware! If you are thinking about buying, NOW is the time to get in the market! Read the report
here.
- Janis Stone
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for the week ending May 24, 2009
Memorial Day is Over…but will it be a typical Summer Real Estate Season?
Memorial Day is behind us and the traditionally moderate summer selling season has begun. Some of our offices are saying that it’s feeling more like a late Spring season right now. Activity is fairly brisk – it goes without saying that the entry level is hot – short on listing inventory and high on Buyer demand, but there is also good activity to report in the mid-to- high end in most communities.
This week NAR announced that existing home sales rose in April with strong buyer activity, as expected, in the lower price ranges. Nationally, existing home sales increased 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million units in March, but were 3.5 percent below that 4.85 million-unit level in April 2008.
While most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges, we are seeing increased activity in the mid-priced markets. This is a domino effect; a turnaround begins with the lower price range homes and once that sector of the market is stabilized, we begin to see changes in the mid and upper price ranges. The upper end, while most recently seeing increased activity, still is considered a Buyer’s market. This seems to be fairly consistent in major Metros on both coasts.
Across most of our local MLS’s, there is approximately an average of 14+ month’s supply of homes over $2 million. This is about twice the inventory for the same period last year. Just the opposite has occurred in the <$800k market. Estimating the average month’s supply of homes across several MLS’s in this price range, we are seeing about 3 months or less – which is half of what we had this time last year – and is considered to be a Seller’s market. If you look at the same months where inventory has shrunk in the entry level – you’ll see stabilizing prices, and in some areas, increasing home values. And of course the higher end has seen declining median price as inventory has been building. This appears to be the perfect opportunity for the move up Buyer – they have a fairly captive audience for selling, and are coming from a better position to negotiate on the buying side.
It’s also important to note that investors reacted to concerns about the mounting size of our national debt this week. The yield on the 10 year T-bill increased mid-week as stocks took a hit, and interest rates for mortgages were affected by a ½ to full one percent increase. Since purchasing power decreases with a rise in interest rates, some Buyers will have an increased sense of urgency to get a signed contract on their new home.
Read the rest of the article
here.
Mortgage Weekly Update - Last Week in Review
Foster Weeks publishes a
weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the
San Francisco real estate market? Read our
weekly and
monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:
“I’M FREE…FREE FALLIN’.” Tom Petty. And a free fall indeed was the case last Wednesday, as Bonds had their worst one-day performance since last October, losing an astounding 206bp. So what caused this free fall…and what helped Bonds and home loan rates rally back and improve later in the week? Here’s what you need to know.
The main culprit for Wednesday’s sell off was supply. The Treasury auctions and the increased number of refinance transactions closing have added hundreds of Billions of dollars of new Bond supply to the market. Economics 101 tells us that anytime supply vastly exceeds demand, prices will move lower, and that’s exactly what we saw last week…and as Bond prices move lower, home loan rates move higher. And the trend isn’t likely to end anytime soon, as the Treasury will have to continue to pump out major supply of Bonds, in order to pay for the massive government stimulus plans…and the Fed buying plan simply won’t be enough to balance out supply and demand - it’s like trying to sop up a flood with a sponge. Bottom line - rates are likely on the rise, but still near historic lows. Let’s talk and make sure you have taken necessary actions for your own financial situation.
Read the entire report on our
website.
